England’s quarter-final with France in Al Khor ended like the final at Wembley and the semi-final in Moscow. Again, hopes of silverware ended in gut-wrenching fashion. Again, sharpened knives are pointed in the direction of Gareth Southgate.
Southgate himself did not commit to leading England into Euro 2024 directly after the loss to France, and spoke of the difficulties he has encountered since the Euros.
"I’ve found large parts of the last 18 months difficult. For everything that I’ve loved about the last few weeks, I still have … how things have been for 18 months. What’s been said and what’s been written. The night at Wolves. There’s lots of things in my head that’s really conflicted at the moment.
"What I want to make sure, if it’s the right thing to stay, is that I’ve definitely got the energy to do that. I don’t want to be four or five months down the line thinking: ‘I’ve made the wrong call.’ It’s too important for everybody to get that wrong."
While understandable for Southgate to need time to evaluate his future, some would argue he should not be afforded such a luxury.
Thomas Tuchel, Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho have all been linked with the England job over the last few months.
Southgate, though, is England’s second-most successful manager.
The Three Lions won six knockout matches at major tournaments between 1968 and 2016. Southgate has led England to six knockout wins over the 2018 World Cup, Euro 2020 and 2022 World Cup.
Those competitions are the first time ever England have won knockout matches at three consecutive major tournaments.
Successes of Southgate
There are reasons both qualitative and quantitative to praise Southgate’s tenure. Statistically, this team is trending in the right direction.
Emotionally, Southgate has brought legitimate belief that silverware is possible rather than the blind hope of previous managers.
Was thinking England had been better this WC (recall 2018 being nothing from open play etc) so all the usual provisos about sample size/schedule strength but as starting point, xG difference per game in Southgate tournaments
— James Yorke (@jair1970) December 11, 2022
WC2018: +0.34
EU2021: +0.24
WC2022: +0.74
Fabio Capello, who led England to one major tournament with a round of 16 exit at the 2010 World Cup, Alf Ramsey, and Glenn Hoddle, who also took England to a lone World Cup round of 16 elimination, are the only managers with a better winning percentage than Southgate’s mark of 60.5%.
It cannot be overstated how poor England were when Southgate succeeded Sam Allardyce.
England were knocked out of a supposedly straight-forward group at the 2014 World Cup, and were sent home from the Euros by Iceland two years later.
The prospect of outplaying the world champions or being a penalty shootout away from winning silverware was unfathomable.
Yes, the draw was kind in 2018, but Southgate overachieved with Ashley Young at wing-back and a midfield which could not compete with Croatia.
At the Euros, perhaps Southgate was too cautious in the final, but he pressed all the right buttons to get there.
In Qatar, England were arguably the best team in the tournament. Southgate’s critics have long claimed he is too cautious.
His Three Lions went toe-to-toe with France after emphatic displays against Iran, Wales and Senegal. It was a performance akin to what so many have asked for.
Don’t take Southgate for granted
Disappointment is inevitable for the majority of teams in knockout football. It is easy to focus on what England have not achieved under Southgate, but this is by far their best period since the 1960s.
What Southgate has ticked off should not be downplayed. Belgium and Germany were knocked out in the group stage in Qatar. Brazil, Portugal and Spain all left the tournament on the back of far more underwhelming performances than England.
Yes, England were deservedly among the tournament favourites, and yes, Southgate is inevitably going to make decisions that are not universally popular.
Still, there is no magic formula for glory with a national team, and hiring a successful club manager is not the fix it might seem.
Hansi Flick and Luis Enrique proved this over the last few weeks. National team management is a different job, presenting unique challenges and demanding pragmatic rather than idealistic football.
The concept Southgate has been negative is largely overblown, but even if he has been safety-first at times, there is good reason for it with the nature of tournament football.
Even though they have had success in Premier League betting odds, the alternatives of Mourinho or Tuchel would not be any different.
Previous favourites for the job like Graham Potter and Eddie Howe are much more focused on Premier League winner odds after being appointed by Chelsea and Newcastle respectively.
There are not many options if the FA opted to pick an English successor.
Moving on would be a mistake
If Southgate wants to stay, the FA should have no hesitancy in retaining him. From his recent comments, a contract extension is probably not of interest, but the FA should be willing to add a couple of years to his current deal.
England’s display against France was their best tournament performance of a generation. A missed penalty from one of the world’s most reliable spot kick takers is out of Southgate’s hands.
Those moments, deflections, refereeing decisions and general luck are a fundamental part of single-match knockout football.
Pointing at the manager is often the easy way out – sometimes the better team loses, and sometimes there’s not much the manager can do.
Southgate has changed a country’s relationship with its national team. He has rebuilt the relationship between the squad and media, and there is no question he has an incredibly strong connection with his players.
That unity and chemistry is not something to be taken lightly.
Playing for England is fun for this generation of players in a way it wasn’t for decades before, which is partnered by this quiet, yet noteworthy, self-belief throughout the squad.
Southgate the manager is, of course, the main focus when debating his legacy, but who he is as a man is vitally important, too.
He has stood up for his players. He has been unafraid to speak honestly about social issues, and just as he has eased the weight of the shirt on his players, he has stuck to his beliefs with tactical and selection decisions in a way that many of his predecessors could not.
Replacing Southgate would be a mistake. What he has done with England is unprecedented.
Minimising those achievements to tournament exits overlooks how much has changed with the England team and the transformative role of luck in winning European Championships and World Cups.
