It should, in theory, be a straightforward task highlighting the clubs most in danger of dropping next May. After all, history tells us we simply have to recall who most recently secured promotion.
Of the 94 clubs who have endured relegation from the top-flight in the Premier League era, 43 of them were popping champagne corks and bidding farewell to the Championship nine months earlier.
In all but four of the 31 seasons since the Premier League was formed, at least one newly promoted club has inhabited the bottom three at its conclusion.
Last May, for the second time ever, all three promoted clubs made a swift return from whence they came.
Premier League Relegation Odds:
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Leicester City - 2/5
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Ipswich Town - 8/11
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Southampton - 11/8
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Everton - 6/4
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Nottingham Forest - 2/1
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Wolverhampton Wanderers - 7/2
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Brentford - 9/2
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Fulham - 5/1
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Bar - 8/1
All of which suggests that the gap between the top two divisions is in reality a chasm. It also suggests that Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Southampton should not get too comfy as they embark on a campaign among the elite.
And yet, on this occasion it doesn’t feel so straightforward. Leicester are hardly going to be a fish out of water when visiting Old Trafford, the Emirates and the like, not after spending nine of their last ten years in the Premier League.
If anything it was last season when they were in unfamiliar territory, having to adapt to the new environs of the second tier and raising their game at Home Park and the Den.
Furthermore, the Foxes have the infrastructure in place to compete at the highest level in addition to having the mentality and the experience.
Even after letting Marc Albrighton and Kelechi Iheanacho go this summer they still possess a squad with literally hundreds of Premier League appearances to their name.
The same can be said of Southampton, who in May immediately bounced back after previously spending 11 years at the highest echelon.
For the players and supporters alike, this campaign will feel like a return home, not a surreal adventure that sees them pitched as underdogs in the betting every weekend.
They may go on to struggle, of course. They may go down again, of course. But not for them any wide-eyed wonderment and the burden of imposter syndrome.
Then we come to Ipswich, who far more than the other two are the Luton of this new yet-to-be-written chapter.
The Tractor Boys were last in residence in the Premier League way back in 2002 and a mere 15 months ago they were fending off Sheffield Wednesday to get out of the third tier.
Might their swift rise from League One to Liverpool away be too swift for their own good, resulting in vertigo with a squad still populated by players who would have been jettisoned if their elevation had been more incremental?
Perhaps. But crucially the Suffolk side have retained the services of Kieran McKenna at the helm, despite serious interest from Chelsea and Manchester United, and it is he who implemented a clear playing style and identity at Portman Road.
It is he who has overseen Premier League standard football for two seasons running from players who are infinitely greater as a collective than the sum of their parts.
So are we saying therefore that all three promoted sides will be just fine this term? Absolutely not.
The Foxes were a revived proposition last season, reimagined under Pep Guardiola acolyte Enzo Maresca into a fluid, possession-based and all-conquering outfit. His departure for Stamford Bridge threatens to derail a club who were building up some interesting momentum.
As for Southampton, their lack of established quality concerns, as too does a punishing run-in. Should they be in the mix next Spring it doesn’t bode well that their final three fixtures pits them against likely title-contenders Arsenal and Manchester City, plus Everton away.
Ipswich meanwhile are fancied to start well but gravity will almost inevitably take hold.
The trio then must be part of the conversation, even if the hope is that at least one bucks the trend and gains a firm footing in mid-table.
Elsewhere, naturally enough there is bound to be one side struggling against all expectation. There always is, though rarely do they ultimately drop, such is the nature of them being a surprise inclusion in the bottom six.
In 2022/23, Leicester went, an accumulation of poor transfer windows and a squad going stale resulting in a team malfunctioning all campaign long.
Just seven years earlier, they shocked the footballing world by winning a fairy tale title and with Brendan Rodgers at the helm, managing the likes of James Maddison and Harvey Barnes, much better things were expected from them.
In 2016 a similar sorry tale befell Aston Villa.
So who should be backed to go against type and endure sustained crisis in the months to come? Fulham spring to mind, a club that has punched above its weight for two years but now has a somewhat aging squad.
The Cottagers will miss Tosin Adarabioyo and they’ll really miss Joao Palhinha.
Brentford too are in danger of seeing their Premier League adventure come to an end. Just five wins in 24 from early December on last term is not a dip but a decline, and what ultimately saved them was that all five victories were against their fellow relegation battlers.
Then of course there is Nottingham Forest to consider, who have only encountered difficulties since coming up in 2022.
Annually churning their personnel and run in an unorthodox manner, the Tricky Trees have consistently made it tricky from themselves and this is especially true away from the City Ground.
They have won only five times on their travels in two years and this partly explains why they are short-priced in the Premier League odds to drop.
For the record, Everton will be okay, and also for the record, it used to be 40 points that was considered the sacred safety mark, but that has now dropped to 37.
On twenty occasions since the millennium, 37 points has been enough to secure survival. It is our opinion that these three clubs will fall short of that measure...
Premier League Relegation Picks
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18th – Nottingham Forest
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19th – Fulham
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20th – Southampton
*Credit for the main photo belongs to Alamy*
