Every new season heralds a thousand unknowns but one thing is certain, one thing can be banked on - it's that in the coming months a good man will lose his job, let down by players, tactics or circumstance.
He won’t be alone either. Like the first domino to fall, others will follow as club owners and chairman press the panic button and believe a change of direction is needed.
Last season four managers were sacked. The season before, a remarkable 13 were given the boot across the campaign.
It’s a brutal, ruthless business modern-day football.
It is not therefore a question of if, but rather when the first head coach receives his P45 in the 2024/25 season and this leads us to some revealing data.
Premier League Sack Race Odds
*Odds on the first manager to be sacked this season will be available in due course*
The quickest sacking took place in Newcastle in August 1998, when Kenny Dalglish – now a sir – was dispensed with just two games in.
Prior and subsequent to that, four gaffers have been fired after only four games and it’s pertinent to note that one of these also occurred at St James’ Park and again involved a knight of the realm. Imagine having the gall to sack Sir Bobby Robson. Imagine thinking that you know better.
On average, the first top-flight dismissal happens after 10.5 games which typically takes us into October, but it’s actually November that can be accurately termed the ‘sacking season’.
That month accounts for exactly a quarter of the first sackings in the Premier League era. As for the reasons behind the early changes in personnel naturally enough poor results and poor performances lie at the root of all of them.
A string of defeats and a malfunctioning team is always going to put a manager’s head on the block. But there are also instances of clubs seeking a cultural switch-up.
In 2017, Crystal Palace wanted a more continental approach after a season of stolid fare served up by Sam Allardyce. They lured over Frank De Boer from Milan who immediately set about transforming the Eagles into a possession-based side.
From the very off however the experiment back-fired, as the players rebelled in training to the Dutchman’s new and unfamiliar ways. By early September he was gone.
So what of the season to come? Who from the 20 top-flight head coaches can be deemed to have questionable job security before a ball has even been kicked?
A clue may lie in the fact that the last manager of a top 6 side to fall first was Brendan Rodgers in 2015 while three years earlier Roberto Di Matteo experienced the same fate at Chelsea.
Save for these two examples though the past 15 years has almost exclusively been gaffers of teams who were expected to struggle, who then went on to duly struggle.
Nuno Espirito Santo (Nottingham Forest)
Which brings us to Santo at the City Ground.
Staying true to type, Forest have been very busy in the transfer market this summer, bringing in a handful of new names even at this early juncture while releasing what feels like half of last season’s first team.
This means further upheaval to a squad that has never been allowed to settle since the club achieved promotion in 2022.
First and foremost, the Portuguese boss has that to deal with.
Furthermore, this is a club with high aspirations that doesn’t necessarily marry to their reality.
The Tricky Trees have resided in the bottom six for 72.3% of the time since escaping from the Championship but will survival cut it for much longer from a demanding hierarchy? They will soon start expecting more return on their considerable investment.
Additionally, Santo was brought in halfway through last season to get results with Forest in perilous danger of dropping. To that end, he succeeded.
Yet the former Wolves boss is hardly known for his favouring of adventurous, entertaining football, erring instead on the side of dour caution. This could be used against him should results go against them in the opening weeks.
It would take a woefully poor start for Santo to be discarded before any of his peers but with Forest short-priced to endure delegation in the betting don’t rule out that happening.
Thomas Frank (Brentford)
Frank is rightfully cherished in West London, the man who transformed Brentford’s fortunes, first as an assistant, then promoted to head coach in the autumn of 2018.
Three years later, the Bees were promoted to the top tier for the first time since 1947.
A subsequent trio of seasons free of relegation concerns is testament to the manager’s acumen but for the first time last term problems came to the fore, flaws and failings that never really went away.
A decidedly mixed lead up to winter gave way to a sustained freefall that had the Bees conceding 1.8 goals per 90 from November onwards and winning only twice at home in 2024.
It was a decline that led to widespread whispers suggesting that the likeable Dane had taken the club as far as he could. Should this season begin in a similar vein those whispers could well be heard in the boardroom.
Erik Ten Hag (Manchester United)
Unquestionably, 2023/24 was Manchester United’s annus horribilis. Even their FA Cup triumph in May doesn’t change that.
They shipped in 58 goals, their highest number since 1979. They faced 667 shots, 200 up from the year before. They lost 38% of their league fixtures and won only five by more than a single goal margin.
Beyond the stats, the Reds looked out-of-sorts and ill-balanced with so much of their woes attributed to Ten Hag’s tactics that left attackers isolated and a back-line exposed.
It was all one big sorry mess.
Inevitably then, the Dutchman’s future at Old Trafford has been cast in doubt, with rumours of his imminent departure escalating further since INEOS – led by Sir Jim Ratcliffe – secured the running of the football side of the club.
To this present point, perhaps surprisingly, he has been reprieved. But with United unfancied in the Premier League odds to turn their frowns upside down, expect that to change sometime soon.
*Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to Alamy*
