Is the top four a closed shop?
It certainly seems that way, with the two Manchester and North London giants, along with Liverpool and Chelsea divvying up Champions League football between them across the last two decades.
In that time only four clubs have managed to break the monopoly and secure a top four finish, with Leicester most famously doing so in 2015/16 when they won a wholly unexpected title.
Premier League Top 4 Finish Odds:
- Manchester City - 1/10
- Arsenal - 2/9
- Liverpool - 1/2
- Chelsea - 11/8
- Manchester United - 2/1
- Newcastle United - 2/1
- Tottenham Hotspur - 2/1
- Aston Villa - 3/1
- Bar - 14/1
The other three occasions saw Everton, Newcastle and Aston Villa squeak into the elite once apiece, edging out Liverpool (twice) and Spurs.
All of which makes for depressing reading – and absolutely debunks the long-standing notion that the Premier League is among the most competitive in the world – but it only gets worse when we flip it and view the stats from another angle.
Since 2004, there have been 80 Champions League spots up for grabs in the English top-flight. Seventy-six of them have gone to Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool and Chelsea.
That’s 95% for those that prefer their cartels portrayed in percentages.
For the record, Chelsea have secured the most top four finishes in the last 20 years, doing so 15 times. City, United and Arsenal are close behind on 14 each. Then there’s Liverpool with 12 and Spurs with seven.
So when we ready ourselves for the forthcoming 2024/25 campaign, and try to ascertain who is in the running to attain Champions League football 12 months from now, can we really look beyond the ‘big six’, a sextet that has a sustained stranglehold on these coveted positions?
Well, yes actually, we can.
That’s because, amidst all of the gloomy talk of long-standing monopolies there is a cause for optimism, that being, of those four outliers mentioned above, two have occurred in the last two years.
Does that suggest that the powerful hold the ‘big six’ has over the Premier League is waning? Perhaps.
Or maybe it’s inevitable that from time to time a couple of them go through a troublesome period, a shared blip, before their enormous resources and substantial stature are utilised properly again, and they return.
Outright Winner - Arsenal
That appears to be the case presently with United, Chelsea and Spurs.
Still, while one persists with a manager who last term led them to a worst league finish for 35 years, and another begins anew with yet another man at the helm – Enzo Maresca being Chelsea’s ninth head coach inside a decade - and Spurs continue to play entertaining, but costly football under Ange Postecoglou, might we again see a surprise name inhabit a spot temporarily left vulnerable, if not vacated?
If so, Newcastle have to be in the frame, fancied to repeat their fourth place finish in 2022/23.
Last season, injuries took a serious toll on the Magpies, as too did the distraction of competing with the continent’s best. It all felt so underwhelming after the initial promise and progress that was made post-takeover.
With a full, fit roster of players however, and should Eddie Howe be canny with a restricted budget this summer, Newcastle can come good again, propelled by the twin threats of Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon up front and bolstered by a defence that – when at full strength – has proven form for being parsimonious.
To Finish In Top 4 - Newcastle United
Aston Villa too should be in the discussion, a club scaling the heights under Unai Emery and still with some climb left in them.
But if Champions League commitments taxed Newcastle’s squad, in doing so compromising their league aspirations, shouldn’t the same be presumed of Villa?
Granted, they beat out Spurs, Chelsea et al to fourth last season while undergoing the gruelling Thursday/Sunday circuit necessary for Europa Conference football. Crucially though, there will be no resting of star players mid-week anymore for Emery and that could be key.
Beyond this pair, Brighton and West Ham harbour semi-realistic hopes of challenging, each in possession of a new manager and about to embark on new eras.
Should either Fabian Hurzeler or Julen Lopetegui implement their mandates quickly and well who knows how far they can go with the quality at their disposal.
After that, we get to the point where the top four odds take a significant leap into the realms of the fantastical. Should a side such as Crystal Palace or Bournemouth – regardless of how well run they are – achieve top four this coming season it will be comparable to Leicester’s title triumph.
Besides, the harsh truth is we’re not really talking about a top four at all, not when two of the spots are already allocated, barring a series of extraordinary events.
Manchester City will possibly struggle to ‘go again’ and find the reserves needed to dig out a fifth consecutive title, but does anyone anticipate them finishing outside of the top two?
The last time that happened was in Pep Guardiola’s inaugural season in England when a period of adaptation to his intricate demands was necessary. In the seven years since, the Blues have averaged 91.1 points per campaign.
Arsenal’s Premier League odds meanwhile are short for a reason, having come so close to being crowned champions for two years running.
Expected to strengthen further over the summer, the Gunners are now in that rarefied space of taking a top four finish for granted, with a title their ultimate objective.
Outright Winner - Liverpool
As for Liverpool, a degree of uncertainty surrounds them post-Klopp, but not enough to believe that a dramatic decline is in any way feasible.
After successfully overhauling their midfield last season, and with a plethora of exciting kids coming though the ranks, there is more than enough for Arne Slot to work with and that’s before we even get to Mo Salah. A top four spot beckons once again at Anfield.
Which, all things considered, leaves us with one place to be fiercely competed over between Manchester United, Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle.
It is only a personal opinion but Chelsea are fancied to get their act together under Maresca, based on their form beyond the new year last season and acknowledging the immediate impact the manager had at Leicester in getting them promoted.
With Newcastle and Villa gatecrashing the party we’ve been spoilt in recent seasons. Regrettably the nature of football these days means that we always swiftly return to the norm.
Top Four Predictions For 2024/25
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Arsenal
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Manchester City
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Chelsea
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Liverpool
*Credit for the photos in this article belongs to Alamy*
