When you’re surveying Euro 2024 odds, you are bound to encounter over/under betting.
The total is going to be a popular topic throughout this summer’s competition, just as it is during any football season.
It is worth looking into goal-scoring trends in international competitions – the Euros has produced some cagey tournaments in the past, while others have regularly hit the over.
Over/under football betting can be profitable if bettors craft a successful strategy. The accessibility of various statistics has made this an easier market to analyse over the last few years. Without further ado, it's time to learn a bit more about over-under betting…
What is Over/Under Betting?
In football, over-under betting is usually a wager on the total number of goals in a match.
Similar markets can be found for most sports, whether that’s the total number of points in a basketball game or the total number of games played in a tennis match.
The bookie will set a ‘line’ for the game total. In most matches this will be 2.5. So, you then wager on whether there will be over or under 2.5 total goals in the match.
If you bet on under, you need there to be zero, one or two total goals for your bet to be a winner. It doesn’t matter how these goals are distributed.
While we are focused on the game total, there are other types of over/under bets. Cards, corners, first-half goals, and various player props will have over/under markets, which work in a similar manner.
The standard ‘line’ in any over/under market will be close to even odds for the over and under.
For instance, if Chelsea are facing Arsenal and the total is 2.5, the over might be 4/5 and the under could be 10/11.
Bettors then have the alternative to take 1.5 or 3.5 as the total. The odds will obviously change considerably here, and this can be where longer odds are accessible in over/under markets.
Over-Under Betting Trends
Before placing your over/under bets, make sure you look in to betting trends for the teams involved. It can also be worth looking at trends for the competition as a whole.
For example, if the Champions League has been generally very high scoring in a season, that should influence your betting decisions.
WinDrawWin is one of the best sites for conducting your over/under betting research. You can find over/under statistics for each team, and also see the average for certain competitions.
Other sites might require a subscription to get more detailed data. You might want certain filters to look at how often certain teams hit the over in home matches or after a loss.
FB Reference and WhoScored are two of the premier football statistics websites. These must be staples for any type of over/under betting on sports – they have comprehensive game logs for teams and players, allowing you to spot trends.
Over Under Betting Strategies
It’s important to devote time to your over - under betting strategy. This isn’t the same as trying to pick a Euro 2024 winner.
While an accurate prediction of the match outcome might help direct you to the over or under, there are inevitably different factors to consider in this market.
If it’s the game total you’re looking at, find how often the two teams have hit the over this season. Look at previous matchups between the sides, and what has happened when the two managers have gone head-to-head in the past.
Analyse expected goal metrics. Read betting previews. Learn as much as you can about the two teams and what’s at stake to get an understanding for how the game is likely to play out. What are others predicting? Is it worth going against the consensus?
Similarly, statistics are your friend in other over / under markets. You want to look at disciplinary records if you’re betting on cards, and it’s worth seeing how often the assigned referee puts players in the book.
If it’s corners, look at how many corners the two teams tend to have. For player props, trawl through their game logs to get a sense for their form and their average statistics.
An efficient over-under betting strategy will require tweaking over time. Always be open-minded and take in as much information as possible.
*Credit for the photos in this article belongs to Alamy*
