Even if you’re new to football betting, you are likely familiar with correct score tips. Guessing the score is not limited to betting – this is a common pre-game ritual for fans all over the world.
Just as is the case throughout the domestic season, bettors will be after expert correct score predictions as they analyse Euro 2024 odds. This is a market with the potential for sizeable returns, and where long odds are the norm.
Different from over/under betting, there are a lot of variables to consider when trying to make accurate correct score tips. Here’s our guide to nailing your correct score picks…
What Is Correct Score Betting?
Correct score tips are a bet on the final score of a match. Most commonly referring to football scores, you can also wager on the correct score in tennis, ice hockey, and other sports.
For the sake of this article, football is our main focus. 888Sport allows bettors to predict the correct score with a selection of possible scores for each match.
Most correct score bets will be a wager on the score at the final whistle – these will range from 0-0 up to 3-3 or 4-4, with the opportunity to wager on a heavy win for either team.
You also can wager on the correct score at half-time. These bets will be settled before the second half gets underway, and means you only have to accurately predict 45 minutes of action.
The scores available to bet on will depend on the teams involved. If Manchester City are facing League Two opposition in the FA Cup, you probably can’t wager on the underdogs to win 4-0.
You will potentially be able to back an 8-0 City win, however.
Correct Score Prediction Strategy
With the potential for big winnings due to the long odds on offer, nailing your correct score prediction strategy can prove to be very profitable.
All correct score picks fall into the longshot category, with the vast majority of Premier League matches unlikely to have a correct score option below 8/1.
There are a lot of variables to consider, and of course, there is a considerable amount of luck involved with factors like injuries, refereeing decisions, and missed chances.
Use Expected Statistics
Statistics are always vital when making your betting decisions. Correct score markets are no different.
While the form guide and recent scores are important, you should look in to expected goal metrics for both teams when trying to find the best value bets. A team that has massively overachieved its expected goals against could be due to concede a few.
An attack that has not made the most of its chances might be about to break out of a team-wide finishing slump. Look beyond the outcomes – underlying metrics are the best way to predict football scores.
Head To Head History
Head-to-head records can give you a sense for how teams approach matches against each other. Are draws particularly common? Do they both commit men forward leading to high-scoring matches?
It can also be useful to see how the managers have fared when they have faced each other. Thomas Tuchel, for example, had a great record against Pep Guardiola for a long time, and David Moyes famously struggled away to the top sides.
Previous score lines don’t tell you everything, but they can help build out your research for your correct score predictions.
Competition-Wide Trends
Looking at competition-wide correct score trends can help when making your picks. For instance, if both teams to have scored in 75% of Champions League matches over the last two seasons, betting on a goalless draw probably doesn’t make sense.
If underdogs have managed to score in the majority of their matches in the Europa League, perhaps it’s not a good idea backing the favourites to win 3-0.
Elsewhere, we would recommend looking at the average goals per match in a competition and for each of the teams involved. For example, if Liverpool have seen over 3.5 total goals in eight of their last 10, a 1-0 win probably isn’t where the value lies.
*Credit for the photos in this article belongs to Alamy*
