The excitement is almost at fever pitch for “the race that stops a nation”, the Melbourne Gold Cup in Australia which will be held on Tuesday 5th November. It’s bonfire night here in the UK so you expect fireworks to happen!
Great Britain and Ireland are well represented this year with Cup regulars, Aidan O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien and Charlie Appleby all declaring runners for the Australian showpiece.
Melbourne Cup: Trends & Statistics
Age of the winners:
3-y-o = 23 wins, 4-y-o = 45 wins, 5-y-o = 44 wins, 6-y-o = 33 wins, 7-y-o = 11 wins, 8-y-o = 2 wins.
- Four and five-year-olds have the best record of any age group with 89 winners between them, that’s a 56% strike-rate.
- The last three-year-old to win was Skipton (1941) and the last eight-year-old was Catalogue (1938).
Effect of the draw:
- Over the last 20 years five stalls - 14 (2 wins), 10 (2 wins), 11 (2 wins), 5 (2 wins) and 22 (2 wins) have accounted for 10 victories.
- Lucky stalls: Stall 5 = 8 wins, Stall 10 = 7 wins, Stalls 11, 14 & 17 = 7 wins, Stalls 1, 4, 6, 8, 19 and 22 = 7 wins. The unluckiest stall is 18 which has never released a winner since stalls were first introduced.
Melbourne Cup 2019: Runners & Riders
Mer De Glace (JPN)
A Group winner in the Japan, the five-year-old shot towards the head of the horse racing betting after an excellent win in the Caulfield Cup.
It’s 18 years however since the last Caulfield Cup winner won the Melbourne Cup and he may struggle under this new weight.
Surprise Baby (NZ)
This five-year-old gelding is sired from the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner Shocking and has earned his owners over $700,000 in ten career starts thus far.
Winner of the Group 2 Adelaide Cup, he should relish the distance here and it is easy to see why he is one of the leading contenders.
Steel Prince (IRE)
A tough stayer and he is proven at this track, but this is a whole new level for the six-year-old and on the face of it he looks outclassed.
Cross Counter (GB)
The five-year-old is a proven world-class stayer and was the winner of this race last year which counts for plenty.
Runs behind Stradivarius and Search For A Song over the summer should have readied him for a big defence of his crown.
Marmelo (GB)
The Hughie Morrison-trained stayer returns for a third tilt at the Melbourne Cup and should run with credit once again after finishing runner-up to Cross Counter last year.
No horse has ever won on their third cup attempt however.
Mirage Dancer (GB)
Finished third in the Caulfield Cup and is very highly regarded by Sir Michael Stoute, who trained him in the UK.
He could well place at a nice price.
Southern France (IRE)
Third behind Search For A Song in the Irish St Leger, a race which has been a stepping stone for international runners going over to Melbourne.
He has to be respected.
Constantinople (IRE)
Constantinople was trained by Aidan O’Brien and had two wins and four seconds from eight starts. He finished second in the Great Voltigeur which is the same race Cross Counter did exactly the same in last year before scoring in Melbourne.
The omens look good!
Master Of Reality (IRE)
Ascot Gold Cup third Master Of Reality is an interesting contender for Joseph O’Brien with Frankie Dettori set to partner the four-year-old.
The trainer won this race in 2017 with Reklinding.
Il Paradiso (USA)
Has form around the best European stayers including Stradivarius and has to be respected from the Aidan O’Brien stable.
Latrobe (IRE)
His form has been fairly patchy this season and he will have to step up on his Irish St Leger sixth. Connections have a good record in this race however.
Angel Of Truth (AUS)
A front-runner who has struggled in four runs so far this season. He has the class and pedigree but it is very hard to win from the front in this race.
Mustajeer (GB)
The York Ebor winner settled into Australia well finishing sixth in the Caulfield Cup. He should come on for the run and the step up in distance.
Rostropovich (IRE)
He was no match for the mighty mare Winx in the Cox Plate, but the Aidan O’Brien-trained son of Frankel is in with a better chance here.
Ispolini (GB)
The five-year-old ran some solid races in Dubai last winter before winning the German St Leger this summer. He has to come into the reckoning based upon Appleby’s record here.
Verry Elleegant (NZ)
Verry Elleegant is a talented mare currently trained by Chris Waller, one of Australia’s premier trainers. This will be a tough ask for her though.
Magic Wand (IRE)
Magic Wand finished fourth last Saturday in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley and may tackle the Mackinnon Stakes instead if conditions are not quick enough at Flemington.
Hunting Horn (IRE)
Winner of the Moonee Valley Cup in impressive fashion last Saturday and became yet another live arrow in Aidan O’Brien’s bow. He certainly won’t be on pacemaking duties in this.
Twilight Payment (IRE)
The seven-year-old is a thorough stayer and has decent form that ties in with Torcedor, Order of St George and Flag of Honour. He shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.
Prince Of Arran (GB)
A victory in the Geelong Cup cemented his place in the race the other day and the British-raider will be hoping to improve upon his third placing last year.
Finche (GB)
Finche ran fourth in last year's Melbourne Cup when ridden by Zac Purton and he may well be on the premises again. He headed the betting for a while after his Kingston Town Stakes victory.
Raymond Tusk (IRE)
Trained by Richard Hannon, he was last seen finishing fourth behind Mustajeer in The Ebor at York in August. This dark horse could surprise a few.
Vow And Declare (AUS)
Trained by an O’Brien but this time a local one named Danny. He finished a decent second in the Caulfield Cup and is bidding to become the first Australian-bred winner of the race in ten years.
Master Of Wine (GER)
The up-and-coming stayer produced a dazzling turn of foot to win the City Tattersalls Club Cup at Randwick and may well take up an entry here off a useful low weight.
Melbourne Cup: 2019 Picks
International raiders have dominated this race in recent times and I can see that trend continuing with the Charlie Appleby-trained Cross Counter becoming the first back-to-back winner since Makybe Diva completed a three-timer between 2003 – 2005.
Fellow British raider, Prince Of Arran, has fully acclimatised to the conditions down-under and has shown he can beat the best of the native challengers. He should put in another bold bid this year.
888sport suggests: Cross Counter (nap), Prince Of Arran (nb).
*Credit for the main photo belongs to Andy Brownbill / AP Photo*
