Rishi Sunak stood outside Downing Street on a rainy 22nd May to call a general election. Curiously delivering the announcement outside and without a gazebo or umbrella, Sunak kicked off an election campaign that has been speculated about for months.
The incumbent Tories are trailing massively in the polls, as they have been for a prolonged period. An election had to be called this year, however, and Sunak was under mounting pressure from his party.
The country will go to the polls on 4th July with Labour well-placed to return to government for the first time since 2010 - with the latest General Election odds suggesting a clear victory for the party.
Sunak is the fifth Conservative Prime Minister since Labour were last in power, having followed David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss.
We will be updating this page with the latest politics odds and predictions over the next few weeks. For now, here's a current look at the most popular General Election betting odds as of June 26th 2024.
Most Seats
Labour remain 1/100 to have the most seats. They opened at 1/25 in this market, but polls have overwhelmingly favoured Keir Starmer’s party, and that is reflected in the betting markets.
The rise of Farage and Reform has posed a bigger threat to the Tories than Labour, too. Reform are going to take votes from the Tories, potentially allowing Labour to sneak in and claim seats that no one expected them to compete for.
Projections have Labour winning the most seats by a sizeable margin. Plenty of polls are indicating the Tories could have under 100 seats, with Reform, the Greens, and the Liberal Democrats all set to make gains.
Some organisations have Reform polling equal or better than the Tories. The BBC currently has Reform on 17%, just behind the Tories.
Remarkably, the Tories and Reform have the same price (25/1) to win the most seats next month. Most projections suggest this is very far-fetched, however, and 25/1 on Reform has no value given how their votes are spread across the country.
General Election Result
Labour are 1/33 to win the General Election. They were 1/20 just a week ago. Good luck finding a projection that produces anything other than a massive Labour majority.
In fact, some high-profile Tories are campaigning on the basis of avoiding a ‘supermajority’ and wanting to avoid the Liberal Democrats becoming the opposition. Rishi Sunak campaigning in his own seat shows how bleak the outlook is for the Tories.
A hung parliament is out to 14/1. Since 1929, only three general elections have ended in a hung parliament. Harold Wilson had a minority government for less than eight months in 1974.
David Cameron formed a coalition with the Liberal Democrats in 2010, and Theresa May entered into a pact with the DUP after her snap election backfired in 2017.
Reform are 40/1 to have a majority. The Tories are 50/1. It’s an extraordinary position to be in. While neither are worth backing even at such long odds, this illustrates how close the Tories are to a potential wipeout election after 14 years in government.
There has been no whimper of a fightback from the Tories throughout this campaign. Senior figures have hidden away. Sunak has won very few people over and alienated many more.
Next Conservative Leader Odds
Kemi Badenoch is the 11/4 favourite to be the next leader of the Conservative party. Whoever succeeds Sunak will be in an unenviable position, even if they cling on to being the opposition.
Penny Mordaunt has slipped from 7/2 a week ago to 9/2 on June 26th. Mordaunt was relatively well-received during her debate appearances, and has been viewed much more favourably than Sunak.
Priti Patel sits as third favourite at 5/1, just ahead of Nigel Farage. The possibility of the Tories absorbing Reform after the election and Farage taking over as leader doesn’t seem all that far-fetched.
Alternatively, they could look to move back towards the centre ground and go back to David Cameron, who is priced at 10s.
*Credit for the main photo belongs to Alamy*
