There have been 69 European Cup and Champions League campaigns since it was decided in the mid-Fifties that football needed a competition to celebrate the continent’s finest. Real Madrid have won 21.7% of them.
“It’s the history and tradition of this club.” That’s how Carlo Ancelotti described the Spanish giants’ remarkable dominance of the most prestigious club tournament around.
He was standing on the Wembley turf at the time, having just engineered Real’s 15th European Cup/Champions League triumph, a bettering of Borussia Dortmund that means Los Blancos’ tally in this competition is now more than double that of any of their peers.
Champions League Outright Winner Odds:
- Manchester City - 9/4
- Real Madrid - 10/3
- Arsenal - 9/1
- Liverpool - 10/1
- Bayern Munich - 12/1
- Bar - 16/1
The next on the list is AC Milan with a perfectly normal seven. Ancelotti himself of course boasts an unprecedented record in the Champions League, winning its earlier incarnation twiceover as a player and then leading Milan to European glory twice in the 2000s.
By completing a hat-trick for Real this June it means he is the only manager to win the tournament on five occasions and to illustrate just how special that achievement is, no coach has won it four times either.
When it comes to the European Cup/Champions League therefore, Real Madrid and Carlo Ancelotti are respectively, and combined, in a league of their own.
Naturally then, last season’s La Liga champions must be seriously fancied to extend on their formidable record next May, and that’s before a ball has been kicked across the 2024/25 seasons.
They possess a glittering array of superstars two of whom – Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham – are in contention to win this year’s Ballon d’Or.
They’ve just signed Kylian Mbappe, a phenom who has previously fired 48 goals in 73 appearances in this competition. And added to their immense quality, not to mention continental pedigree, they also have an unerring knack of finding a way when all seems lost.
In each of their three knock-out ties in 2022, Real pulled off sensational late comebacks, recoveries that were earthed in an inherent sense of entitlement. After all, winning the big-eared jug is their history and tradition.
Yet strangely, Los Blancos are not favourites this time out in the Champions League betting, nor were they last. That honour belongs to a club that inherently has whatever the opposite of a sense of entitlement is. A complex? A Champions League neurosis?
Outright Winner - Real Madrid
After 12 years of trying Manchester City finally secured their first Champions League crown in 2023. Prior to that though, and after, they have routinely encountered misfortunes that are completely at odds with their stature and status.
In 2022 they were one of Real’s three comeback victims, sucker-punched in the 90th, 91st and 95th minute in a quite ridiculous conclusion to a semi-final.
Last year, it was again Madrid who undid them, this time on penalties. Twice they were ahead in a six-goal thriller at the Bernabeu, only to be pegged back.
There was a quarter-final loss to Spurs too in 2019 that frankly warrants an article to itself to properly demonstrate how unfortunate City were and across their Champions League campaigns we find a catalogue of calamities and terrible refereeing decisions that explains why Blues continue to boo the tournament’s anthem to this day.
Is it a curse? Their triumph in Istanbul discredits that but certainly it is unsettling seeing a side dominate their domestic landscape so comprehensively then once again become oil to the Champions League water.
For all of their considerable pluses, Pep Guardiola’s men should be fancied this season, but not backed.
The same goes too for Liverpool who, like Madrid, possess fine heritage in this competition winning it six times and reaching ten finals all told.
Their sixth success was orchestrated by Jurgen Klopp but with the German now having departed Anfield perhaps a wait-and-see approach is best deployed here, caution incidentally that is reflected in their generous football odds.
Granted, the Reds won the ultimate prize in 2005 with Djimi Traore and Milan Baros in their ranks so stranger things have happened, but with Arne Slot coming in cold and intent on redecorating Liverpool appear to be heading into a season of transition.
And teams in transition don’t typically win the Champions League.
Outright Winner - Liverpool
This thinking also rules out two European behemoths in the form of Barcelona and Bayern Munich, the latter not undergoing substantial change but now led by a manager surrounded by unknowns.
Will Vincent Kompany prove himself an elite coach, capable of navigating FC Hollywood to further glories? All we know if that the legendary former defender has to take a lot of responsibility for Burnley going down in such an abject fashion last term and so the jury remains out.
As for the Blaugrana, another disappointing season has resulted in Hansi Flick replacing Xavi in the hot-seat, the German returning to club football after failing to ignite Die Mannschaft.
For a portion of pre-season Flick had only nine senior players to work with due to injuries and international obligations and his options don’t greatly increase when a full roster becomes available.
With Barcelona firmly entrenched in a financial mire they are unable to make any transfers meaning once again they will rely on – admittedly brilliant – kids to get them through. With that comes inevitable limitations.
Lastly, there is Arsenal and PSG to consider, both sides more than capable of going deep but both too accompanied by doubts.
For the Gunners, it is a Premier League title that is their holy grail and Mikel Arteta will be wary of jeopardizing their chances by multitasking with other competitions.
Coincidence or not, Arsenal’s costly loss to Aston Villa in April came just three days before a Champions League quarter final second-leg against Bayern.
PSG meanwhile must take on the cream of the continent minus their superpower in possessing Mbappe. As disadvantages go, how can that not be considered significant?
*Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to Alamy*
